Active Severe Weather period shaping up for Oklahoma

As we head into the weekend one thing is becoming very clear......

We will be entering into an active weather pattern starting Saturday the 18th and going through Monday the 20th. Below are images from the Local National Weather Service office in Norman. They chronicle their latest thinking on how the weekend weather picture will unfold.

Image courtesy NWS Norman

On Saturday the Dry line will be pushing into the state and will be at the western border by late afternoon. There is a strong Capping inversion, warm layer of air that acts as a lid on the atmosphere, that should be in place during the day to limit convective initiation. If it gets warm enough and there is enough lift to erode that cap then storms should fire in the western part of the state and move to the E or NE. As the Weather service indicates with the Red shaded area.... this is the area that will see a tornadic threat if those storms do fire. These storms, if they form, should be into the metro area by late evening.

Image courtesy NWS Norman

 From every source that I am reading and hearing, Sunday appears to be the main day in the state as far as the very real possibility of a severe weather outbreak. All modes of Severe weather will be possible and there is a very real possibility of strong and damaging tornadoes. The red shaded area again indicates the area that has the highest probability for Tornadoes. Time frame for the Metro Area should be around 4-6 pm.

Image courtesy NWS Norman

Monday has the potential to be a sleeper Severe Weather day to me. There are a lot of indications that point to another "outbreak" type event but there are still some uncertainties that would limit a hard and fast determination. I have not seen any of the local media mention outbreak on this day but it will be a day to keep weather aware.

I post all of this information so as not to freak you out. I do this to make you aware of the potential and try to provide you with the tools to keep you and your family and friends aware. I try to update weather as much as possible and also try to provide you as many opinions as possible. Those of you who have lived in the southern plains for any length of time know that weather is a very inexact science. All indications can be there for a major severe weather day and if that "Cap" holds... then you are not going to get anything. 

Some of the sites below are good examples of places to get information: 

Storm Prediction Center 

Norman Forecast office of the National Weather Service

It is also a good idea to have multiple ways of getting warning information. Social Media should not be one of them. I would also not rely on the outdoor siren network. These are meant for outdoor warning only!!! 

I will try to post updates as I can. 

Be Safe and be weather aware. 

Bryan

Why I don’t Blog that often….

As I am sitting here trying to decide what to write about on my blog…. I … well I hear crickets… 

I got nothing… nada… zilch….zero.

I could tell you that it is cold and dry and is probably going to stay that way for awhile. We have a few isolated chances for snow flurries throughout the week but nothing that is going to cause major travel problems. This is a far cry from what the weather models (didn’t want you to think that I was talking about Victoria Secret models for crying out loud!) were saying as late as Friday of last week. Just goes to show you that weather forecasting is not as easy as it looks although I still believe that there is a set of dice involved somewhere in the equation.

I could talk about the OSU BCS debacle and how I feel about the country getting to see a rematch of two outstanding SEC teams. Do I think that OSU deserved to be in the BCS championship game? Yes. Do I think that the two best teams in the country are playing each other in said game? Yes. OSU is getting rewarded for their hiccup in Ames, Iowa. Unfortunately they, OSU, needed to run the table to get into the BCS game. They simply don’t have the respect that a SEC powerhouse has. They need to continue this season into another 10 + win season and another and another. Then they will get the attention of the folks that vote. It would have made a great end to a Cinderella season but they are still getting to go to the Fiesta Bowl and play the #4 team in the Nation! Stanford has a Heisman hopeful in Andrew Luck and is a really good team altogether. I look forward to watching them play with the vim and vigor that they did against the instate rivals OU. It should be a great game.

I could talk about politics but I don’t want to bore you, all … well I really don’t know how many of you are out there.

I could post a really cute pic of one of my cats but I will save that for when I really don’t have anything to talk about.

So for not having anything to talk about…. Well I was able to get almost 400 words out of it.

Hopefully I will have a better post tomorrow.

Until then… Be Safe!

Bryan.  

The Record of an unusual summer in Oklahoma.

Oklahoma has many weather phenomena. We have snow, dust, ice, tornadoes and oh yeah... did I mention wind? Where do you think that Rogers and Hammerstein got the verse in the song from? Well this year has been one for the record books. In more ways than one. We have suffered through a real severe drought. In some areas there has not been any measurable rain in almost 2 and a half months! (see graphic below)

(Image Courtesy of Oklahoma Mesonet)

(Image Courtesy of NWS Norman)

The image above is courtesy of the Oklahoma Mesonet. As you can see we have a few areas of the state that haven't seen rain in a long time. Arnet, in Northwestern Oklahoma, has gone 74 days without a .25 inch of rain or more. The next one is in the Panhandle and it is Hooker. They have gone 73 days with out measurable rain. That is a long time. Had this been a different time and year we would have probably had another mini dust bowl. I don't claim to know about agriculture and soil but I can imagine that you can go for quite a good depth and not find moist soil. I have heard news farm reports that have said that this is going to be a bad Wheat year as well as other grains. You can see why when you look at the graphic.

Also, another thing that we are suffering from is a long term heat wave. Yesterday, there were records broken, more like shattered, all over the Norman Forecast office. (See Graphic below)

(Image Courtesy NWS Norman)

As you can read in the graphic it was hot!!! H O T hot!!! In Oklahoma City we broke a 47 year old record by 4 degrees... now that is hot!!! The normal high temp for yesterday in Oklahoma City was, I believe, 93 degrees. Have I mentioned how hot that is? When you are 17 degrees above normal there is no other way to say that it is.... you guessed it.... HOT!!!

Forecasts for the coming period don't show it improving anytime in the near future. In Oklahoma City, we have a ever so slight chance of rain tomorrow and Tuesday. 20% is about as good as it gets. You never know though. You might get lucky and get under one of those "popcorn" thunderstorms and viola!!! it will become bearable for about an hour or so.

Last image I will leave you with is from the NWS Norman office. This is the Temp outlook for the next couple of days.... and you can read it and yell at me afterwords....

(Image Courtesy of NWS Norman)

Stay cool everyone! Check on your neighbors and the elderly and drink lots of water!

Stay safe!

Bryan.