As we head into the weekend one thing is becoming very clear......
We will be entering into an active weather pattern starting Saturday the 18th and going through Monday the 20th. Below are images from the Local National Weather Service office in Norman. They chronicle their latest thinking on how the weekend weather picture will unfold.
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| Image courtesy NWS Norman |
On Saturday the Dry line will be pushing into the state and will be at the western border by late afternoon. There is a strong Capping inversion, warm layer of air that acts as a lid on the atmosphere, that should be in place during the day to limit convective initiation. If it gets warm enough and there is enough lift to erode that cap then storms should fire in the western part of the state and move to the E or NE. As the Weather service indicates with the Red shaded area.... this is the area that will see a tornadic threat if those storms do fire. These storms, if they form, should be into the metro area by late evening.
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| Image courtesy NWS Norman |
From every source that I am reading and hearing, Sunday appears to be the main day in the state as far as the very real possibility of a severe weather outbreak. All modes of Severe weather will be possible and there is a very real possibility of strong and damaging tornadoes. The red shaded area again indicates the area that has the highest probability for Tornadoes. Time frame for the Metro Area should be around 4-6 pm.
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| Image courtesy NWS Norman |
Monday has the potential to be a sleeper Severe Weather day to me. There are a lot of indications that point to another "outbreak" type event but there are still some uncertainties that would limit a hard and fast determination. I have not seen any of the local media mention outbreak on this day but it will be a day to keep weather aware.
I post all of this information so as not to freak you out. I do this to make you aware of the potential and try to provide you with the tools to keep you and your family and friends aware. I try to update weather as much as possible and also try to provide you as many opinions as possible. Those of you who have lived in the southern plains for any length of time know that weather is a very inexact science. All indications can be there for a major severe weather day and if that "Cap" holds... then you are not going to get anything.
Some of the sites below are good examples of places to get information:
It is also a good idea to have multiple ways of getting warning information. Social Media should not be one of them. I would also not rely on the outdoor siren network. These are meant for outdoor warning only!!!
I will try to post updates as I can.
Be Safe and be weather aware.
Bryan
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